Election 2024: A Dramatic Shift in Early Voting Patterns and Polling Quality
Early voting trends and polling data are painting an intriguing picture of the 2024 presidential election, revealing significant changes from the 2020 race. Here’s what you need to know about how Americans are voting and how we’re tracking their choices.
The Early Voting Landscape
More than 43 million Americans have already cast their ballots across 47 states and Washington, D.C., according to combined data from CNN, Edison Research, and Catalist. This represents a notable drop from 2020’s record-breaking early turnout during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The makeup of early voters has shifted dramatically:
- Older voters (65+) now make up 46% of early ballots, up 10% from 2020.
- White voters slightly increased to 74% of early voting.
- Republican participation in early voting has jumped to 35%, up from 28% in 2020.
Battleground State spotlight
Georgia stands out as a unique case. While most states see lower early turnout, Georgia’s numbers nearly match 2020. In-person early voting has actually surpassed 2020 levels, with over 2.8 million ballots cast.
Key state changes:
- North Carolina: Early voting down 12% overall, but in-person voting up significantly.
- Arizona: Republicans share up 10 points to 43%
- Pennsylvania: Democratic share dropped from 70% to 59%
The Polling Picture
The good news? While we’re seeing fewer polls in 2024, the quality has improved. 538’s analysis reveals several positive trends:
- More polls from trusted media and university sources
- Fewer partisan polls in congressional races
- Better coverage of swing states
- Higher average pollster ratings
Looking Ahead
With Election Day just a week away, these trends suggest a very different voting landscape than 2020. While early voting numbers are lower overall, they point to increased Republican engagement in pre-election voting, a shift from recent patterns.
The improved quality of polling data, despite lower quantity, means voters can have more confidence in the numbers they’re seeing. However, as history shows, elections can always bring surprises.
Stay tuned as we continue tracking these evolving patterns in what promises to be one of America’s most closely watched elections.
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