Trump Media Soars Past Musk’s X in Market Value, Fueled by Election Momentum

Trump Media Soars Past Musk’s X in Market Value, Fueled by Election Momentum

In a remarkable turn of events on Wall Street, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) has surpassed the market value of Elon Musk’s X platform, showcasing the powerful intersection of politics and market dynamics.

TMTG’s stock skyrocketed 21.6% on Monday, closing at $47.36 per share following Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. This surge pushed the company’s market value to an impressive $9.48 billion, edging past X’s estimated worth of $9.4 billion, according to recent Fidelity valuations.

The numbers tell a striking story. Trump’s 56.6% ownership stake in TMTG is now worth more than $5.3 billion on paper. This comes despite the company’s modest financial performance—TMTG reported just $1.6 million in total revenue for the first half of 2024, along with significant losses.

“I’ve never seen anything quite like this,” says Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. “This company’s value is almost entirely based on the outcome of an election.”

The stock’s journey has been nothing short of dramatic. After hitting a low of $12.15 per share in September 2023, TMTG shares have surged more than 200%. Market experts point to growing investor confidence in Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming presidential election against VP Kamala Harris as the primary driver behind this rally.

Truth Social, TMTG’s main product, remains relatively small compared to its competitors. While exact user numbers aren’t public, data shows that Facebook has 200 times more monthly active users on mobile platforms in the United States. Even newer platforms like Threads boast 20 times more users than Truth Social.

The company’s financial statements reveal some stark realities. In Q2 2024, TMTG reported:

  • Revenue: $836,900
  • Net loss: $16.37 million
  • Previous quarter loss: $327.6 million (mostly due to merger expenses)

Industry analysts warn of potential volatility ahead. “If Trump loses, I suspect it’s a billion-dollar company,” Munster adds, suggesting the stock could face a significant downturn if election results don’t favor the former president.

The contrast with X (formerly Twitter) is particularly striking. Since Musk’s $44 billion acquisition in 2022, X’s value has declined substantially. While Musk himself remains a prominent Trump supporter and recently appeared at the Madison Square Garden rally, his platform’s estimated value sits below that of TMTG.

Trump formed TMTG in 2021 after being removed from major social media platforms following the January 6 Capitol events. While he’s since been reinstated on various platforms, Truth Social remains his preferred communication channel.

Market experts like Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers note: “If this were called Joe’s Media Company, we wouldn’t even be talking about it, and it wouldn’t have a value anywhere close to this. The value is completely tied to the former president.”

As the November 5 election approaches, Wall Street continues to watch TMTG closely, with many viewing it less as a traditional tech stock and more as a proxy for election predictions. The company’s ultimate fate may well be decided not in the boardroom but at the ballot box.

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