Box Office Preview: Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans’ ‘Red One’ Kicks Off Year-End Tentpole Parade

I’m thrilled to share the most recent box office news: ‘Red One’, Amazon’s new Christmas action-adventure movie, will launch the year-end tentpole parade this weekend. “Red One,” starring Dwayne Johnson as Santa’s head of security and Chris Evans as the world’s most infamous bounty hunter, embarks on a global mission to rescue Christmas following Santa Claus’ kidnapping.

With a reported budget of $250 million, everyone will be closely monitoring the performance of this high-stakes holiday film at the box office. Tracking suggests ‘Red One’ is aiming for a domestic debut in the $30 million to $35 million range across 4,032 theaters. While that may seem modest for a movie of this size, Amazon insists its business model is different—it’s focused on building a new film franchise and driving subscribers to Prime Video rather than just box office returns.

“Exhibitors are certainly happy to play the first proper Christmas movie since before the pandemic when The Grinch opened in 2018, not to mention a movie with such high-profile talent,” said one industry analyst.

Directed by Jake Kasdan from a screenplay by Chris Morgan and a story by Hiram Garcia, ‘Red One’ also stars Lucy Liu, Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt, Kristofer Hivju, Nick Kroll, Wesley Kimmel, and J.K. Simmons. The U.S. has rated it PG-13, despite receiving unfavorable reviews.

But Amazon MGM is banking on the film’s global appeal to make up for any domestic shortcomings. The studio has waged a full-fledged marketing campaign, including advertising on major sporting events, coordinating an ambitious screening series, and dispatching talent around the world.

“Amazon collaborated with It’s Boba Time, a popular AAPI-owned boba company, in all 88 of their locations for two weeks and created a custom Red One-themed drink called ‘Missing Santa,'” the studio shared. “The studio also partnered with five local Black-owned coffee shops and bakeries to host free Red One drink giveaways to promote the film during opening week.”

Internationally, ‘Red One’ has already opened to $28 million from 25,195 screens across 75 markets, with Warner Bros. handling distribution duties.

“The film’s success will be based on global box office combined with how it performs on Prime this holiday season and for years to come as a perennial Christmas favorite,” an insider revealed.

Of course, ‘Red One’ isn’t the only high-profile tentpole set to debut in the coming weeks. Universal’s ‘Wicked’ and Paramount’s ‘Gladiator II’ are both on the horizon, followed by Walt Disney Animation’s ‘Moana 2’ on November 27th. Many have already dubbed this corridor “Moanapocalypse” or “Glicked.”

As audiences prepare for a busy holiday movie season, they will be keenly watching ‘Red One’ to see if it can make a strong start. After a tough fall, the box office is certainly hoping for a Christmas miracle.

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