Ballot Battle: How Voter ID Laws and Counting Delays Could Shape the 2024 Election
As a seasoned political reporter, I’ve seen my fair share of elections. But the upcoming 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be one for the history books. Two key factors are set to play a significant role: strict new voter ID laws and potential delays in vote counting. Let’s dive into how these issues could impact the outcome.
Voter ID: A Growing Hurdle
Eight states have tightened their voter ID rules since 2020. Now, 12 states have what experts call “strict” voter ID laws. This means many people without the proper ID can’t vote.
These laws are hitting swing states hard. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin – all crucial battlegrounds – now have strict ID rules. With razor-thin margins expected, every vote will count.
“No one’s talking about this enough,” warns Ceridwen Cherry of VoteRiders, a group that helps people get voting IDs. “It’s going to have a huge impact.”
Republicans pushing these laws say they stop fraud. However, studies show actual voter fraud is extremely rare. Critics argue the real aim is to make voting harder for specific groups.
Who’s Affected?
Nearly 50 million voting-age Americans don’t have a current driver’s license or one with their current address, which could prevent them from voting in strict ID states.
The burden isn’t spread evenly:
- Black and Hispanic voters are three times more likely than white voters to lack a driver’s license.
- Young voters, who heavily favor Kamala Harris in polls, are the most likely to lack proper ID.
- Low-income voters and people with disabilities often face extra hurdles in getting IDs.
“It sounds easy to say, ‘Just get an ID,'” says Andrea Benjamin, a professor at the University of Oklahoma. “But think about the actual hurdles people face.”
The Counting Conundrum
Even after votes are cast, we might be waiting for a long time to know the winner. Here’s why:
Swing State Slowdowns
Key swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, which will likely cause significant delays in receiving results.
Natural Disasters
Hurricane Helene has already disrupted early voting in North Carolina. Other weather events could also disrupt the process elsewhere.
Legal Battles Brewing
Both parties are gearing up for many lawsuits over state voting rules. These court fights could drag on for weeks after Election Day.
A Look Back: How Long Have We Waited Before?
- 2020: It took four days to declare Joe Biden the winner, mainly due to a surge in mail-in voting during the pandemic.
- 2016: Donald Trump’s victory was called in the early hours after Election Day.
- 2000: The Bush v. Gore saga lasted 35 days and ended with a controversial Supreme Court ruling.
What This Means for 2024
- Expect uncertainty: We might not know the winner on election night. Be prepared for a potentially long wait.
- Every vote matters: In swing states with new ID laws, even small numbers of rejected voters could tip the scales.
- Stay informed: Rules vary widely by state. Make sure you know what ID you need to vote where you live.
- Watch for legal challenges: Court battles over voting rules and ballot counting could decide the winner.
As we head into this high-stakes election, one thing is clear: patience will be essential. The combination of stricter ID laws and potential counting delays means we might be in for a nail-biter that stretches well beyond November 5th.
Stay tuned, stay informed, and most importantly – make sure your voice is heard at the ballot box.
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