The match between Roman Safiullin and Fabio Fognini in the Round of 32 will be the focus of attention as the ATP Tour travels to Belgrade, Serbia, for the Belgrade Open.
Safiullin, the World No. 60, enters this contest as the clear favorite, holding -400 odds to defeat the veteran Italian. The 25-year-old Russian has been in impressive form of late, winning the Challenger title in Bratislava last week without dropping a single set.
Known for his success on quick indoor hard courts, Safiullin will look to leverage his recent momentum and strong record on this surface to overcome Fognini. Over the past year, he has posted a 51.7% win rate on hard courts, averaging 24.1 games per match.
In contrast, Fognini, ranked 74th in the world, has struggled to find his footing on indoor hard courts, winning just 65.1% of his service games and 26.1% of his return games on this surface in 2024. The Italian veteran’s last deep run on an indoor hard court came in 2023, when he reached the semifinals in Metz. The head-to-head record also favors Safiullin, as he holds a 1-0 advantage over Fognini, having defeated him in three sets at the Chengdu Open last year.
“The bookies give Safiullin the edge in this matchup, and we agree,” said one tennis analyst. “Roman had a decent run last week in Bratislava, so we expect him to be fully confident coming into this matchup. On the other hand, Fognini never had any success on the indoor courts.” Safiullin’s strong form and Fognini’s struggles on fast indoor surfaces set the stage for the young Russian to continue his ascent up the rankings with a convincing victory in Belgrade.
Should Safiullin advance, he could potentially face a tough test in the quarterfinals, where he may encounter 2023 Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic, who is also in the draw. Nonetheless, Safiullin’s current momentum and his ability to excel on indoor clay courts make him a compelling pick to emerge victorious in this Round of 32 clash and potentially make a deep run in the Belgrade Open.